Kalshi Fed Forecasts Are as Good as Wall Street’s, Study Says
Kalshi, the booming platform that churns out predictions on everything from the Super Bowl to US elections, is showing early promise as an accurate forecaster of Federal Reserve policy and economic data, a new study finds. When it comes to predicting interest-rate decisions, Kalshi is “roughly consistent” with professionals such
Crypto Traders Flee to Prediction Bets After Crash
Not long ago, Nikshep Saravanan was deep in the crypto trenches — trading memecoins, reaching out to venture capitalists, and trying to launch a startup for digital creators. By January, he’d dropped it all. These days, he spends hours on prediction markets, tracking odds on everything from sports to politics.
Polymarket Steps Into Legal Gray Area by Hosting Trades on War
Even as prediction-market platforms have tested legal and regulatory norms like never before, most have drawn a line at one category: direct wagers on war. Not Polymarket. In recent weeks, the startup — newly backed by Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — has listed a
Coinbase Acquires The Clearing Company in Prediction Market Push
Coinbase Global Inc. announced Monday that it will acquire a derivatives clearinghouse, The Clearing Company, to boost its entry into the growing prediction markets business. The crypto trading platform said the acquisition would help it expand on its ambitions to become “the Everything Exchange.” It comes just days after Coinbase
Matchbook to Launch UK Prediction Markets Ahead of US Entry
Matchbook, a sports betting exchange, is launching a prediction market platform in the UK as it prepares to compete with rivals Kalshi and Polymarket in the US. The British debut in January will be a “road test” of its technology before Matchbook — registered in Guernsey — obtains US regulatory approval, which
Robinhood, Susquehanna Escalate Prediction-Market Arms Race
Robinhood Markets Inc. and Susquehanna International Group are taking over a regulated exchange that was tied to the now-defunct crypto business FTX, giving them a powerful new foothold in the fast-growing world of prediction markets. The two firms are buying a majority stake in LedgerX, a US-based derivatives exchange once
Prediction Markets Go From Fringe to Frenzy as Wall Street, Silicon Valley Pile In
The intimate meal, 60 floors above New York’s financial district, brought together a pillar of the Wall Street establishment and a young crypto upstart. The host, billionaire septuagenarian Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, arrived in a suit. His guest,
Polymarket Testing US Prediction Market in Move to Reopening
Polymarket has begun live testing its US exchange by quietly opening up to some users and matching trades ahead of its planned relaunch in the American betting market. The prediction platform says the exchange is fully functional, with select users placing bets on real contracts, as it moves to complete
Bernstein Sees Prediction Markets Propelling Robinhood, Coinbase
Prediction markets just got a fresh sell-side stamp of legitimacy. In a new report, Bernstein calls them a viable asset class — arguing that what once looked like novelty bets are now being built into the foundations of mainstream finance, backed by real capital, real users and regulatory approval. The report
Polymarket Volume Inflated by ‘Artificial’ Activity, Study Finds
The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, according to a new study by Columbia University researchers. The “artificial trading,” as the authors call it, varied over
Google to Offer Kalshi and Polymarket Data on Finance Searches
Gambling’s reach is extending deeper into the investment ecosystem as Google strikes a deal to pipe prediction market data from Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket into its finance platform. In the partnership announced Thursday, Google Finance said it will offer up the changing odds from the prediction market exchanges when
Coinbase CEO Stunt Exposes Prediction Market Vulnerability
When Coinbase Global Inc.’s quarterly earnings call wrapped up Thursday, its chief executive, Brian Armstrong, didn’t finish with profit guidance or statements of confidence. He closed it out with a list: “Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3.” Those weren’t random buzzwords. They were part of an $84,
